Tressels,
The importance of this game cannot be overstated.
This has become a must-win game. For whatever
reason, the Bucks have a do-over. I don't care
if all the things that made this possible were
fate or luck or neither. I'm no longer uncomfortable.
It doesn't matter. All that matters is that the
Bucks win.
At the beginning of the season, I thought it was
admirable that the team's sole focus was getting
back to the BCS title game and winning this time.
To a man, this was played back repeatedly through
interview after interview. The players resolve
with that statement took me aback a bit. As a
fan, I thought "hell yes!" As a human
being, I thought "these poor guys had their
shot and blew it. They'll live with that the rest
of their lives."
Make no mistake, it's not by accident that the
Buckeyes are playing for the title tomorrow. This
was OSU's only goal all along -- beat an SEC team
under difficult circumstances to win the championship
and restore pride to Ohio State and Big Ten football.
Here's what is on the line
tomorrow.
College football is the only Division I sport
that does not decide its national championship
with a playoff. Therefore, perception is critical.
Before the first snap of the season, the fate
of some teams is already sealed. Just ask Auburn
who went undefeated a few years ago but just happened
to have a low preseason rank and was left out
of the title game. Or, ask Kansas, Missouri or
Georgia this year. Ohio State and the Big Ten
have a historically strong reputation. That perception
has come to the crossroads. Lose and speed up
the erosion to the point where repair is painful
and slow. Win and catapult the program and the
conference back to national respectability.
If Tressel wins this game, he'll be able to write
his own pass for a long time. He could suffer
many consecutive mediocre seasons, lose to Michigan
repeatedly and get caught whistling "On Wisconsin"
through the frozen food section of Krogers and
still be revered. Some day he will get tired and
it would be nice for him personally to have this
win in his "Joe-Pa" reserve.
Last year, you got the sense individualism was
taking precedence over team. I think many of the
Bucks arrived in Glendale thinking about their
upcoming NFL declarations and/or contracts. This
year, I really do think EVERY Ohio State team
member has only thought about beating an SEC team
to win the title. Their play this season showed
this singular focus. A strong example -- the Buckeyes
have been at their best on the road in hostile
environments at night. Something you don't do
alone. Also, on the individual motivation front,
it doesn't hurt that Gholston, Jenkins, Robo and
Boone need strong performances if they want to
solidify draft position (or justify coming out
early). And, if I can hand-pick one Buckeye who
will play his heart out even though his top 5
draft status is a lock, it would be Laurinaitis.
Oddly, I'm glad the Bucks are traveling to play
an SEC team essentially on their own turf in a
carnival-like scene. Somehow this backdrop only
reinforces what makes this team great -- and that
is being a team. The best team will win this game.
The Bucks will need to play for themselves, their
families, their teammates and their conference
or their goal is too small to win. They have gotten
here by demonstrating that e xecution as a team
is critical -- no one is every out of the play.
These guys hit their assignments and get after
their downfield blocks. To understand how Ohio
State is in the title game, watch players like
Tyler Whaley (#42) and Jake Ballard (#86) -- especially
when they are away from the ball. The Bucks should
be well-coached, well-conditioned and ready to
go. The outcome could hinge on every single play.
It's impossible to know exactly what to expect
tomorrow.
At first I tried to take a scientific approach.
I went through each game OSU and LSU played against
opponents who played in bowl games to see how
they performed vs. the season average for that
opponent. On average, the OSU defense held bowl-bound
opponents to 48% of their average points per game
and the offense scored 18% more points per game
than the opponent typically yields. For LSU, their
defense held opponents to 62% of their average
and their offense scored 43% more points than
average. OSU scored 26.2 points against bowl-bound
teams and gave up 14.8. Those numbers for the
Tigers are 33.5 and 19.8, respectively. Giving
even weighting to both the OSU and LSU averages,
you come up with a predicted score of 19.8 for
OSU and 18.7 for LSU.
The scientific approach seemed extremely inappropriate
for a game played in New Orleans, so I looked
into the voodoo behind the game.
The 2002 championship game was played on January
3rd (or 1/3 or 13). The Bucks were preseason #13
in 2002. They had 13 seniors on that team. Clarett
was #13 (love him or hate him, the Bucks wouldn't
have won the title without him). The Bucks won
13 regular season games.
The 2007 championship game will be played on January
7th (or 1/7 or 17 or combination of). The Bucks
rose in the final weeks from #7 in the BCS to
#1. Boeckman (whose unexpectedly strong play has
propelled the Bucks to the title game) is #17.
(This one is a bit of a stretch, but...) it's
possible that 17 Buckeyes are playing their last
game for Ohio State (12 seniors + Laurinaitis
+ Gholston + Jenkins + Robo + Boone).
The voodoo seemed a little off-Krenzel, so I just
decided to think about the match-up.
First off, as a Buckeye fan, I wish Les Miles
had taken the Michigan job. Rich Rodriguez is
a good hire for UM and for the conference. Coach
Tressel has already beaten Les Miles during the
2004 Alamo Bowl when he was the head coach of
Oklahoma State. In that game, Troy was suspended,
Justin had one leg, so we first saw the creativity
of the Shot-Ginn. When Coach Tressel uses creativity,
it usually has either limited risk or breaks a
tendency that opponents will see on film. Les
Miles creativity is more of the loose-cannon type.
I think LSU will trick OSU a couple times, but
they will also try some things with disasterous
reprecussions. I watched the replay of the LSU/Auburn
game and LSU is extremely lucky they didn't have
3 loses this year. They were easily within FG
range and had a timeout remaining, but instead
threw a low-percentage pass into the endzone.
If that ball is dropped or tipped (it nearly was)
the clock runs out and LSU loses. Not smart.
My buddy Nate Rish mentioned the key to the game
is Steve Rehring and I think he's right. Rehring
will have the unenviable assignment of blocking
Glenn Dorsey. Rehring has the size, has shown
the footwork and has the right amount of nastiness
to do an admirable job. If Rehring can do a sound
job against Dorsey, the Bucks won't need to let
Dorsey's presence loom in the back of their mind
every play. If Rehring's performance is better
than "sound," then all is Well(s).
As mentioned many, many times - you negate speed
by running right at it. That's what I hope the
Bucks are able to do to the LSU defense. Beanie's
resolve is scary. It looks as if he's a man possessed
thinking about this game. I'd love to see the
determination he displayed against Michigan --
the most ever yards by an OSU back in The Game
-- resurface for the title game. Every Beanie
Wells 4-yard pick-up keeps the clock moving, wears
out the defense and keeps the LSU offense off
the field. I'd love to see Beanie get 30 carries.
The other thing that seems to be coming back is
Todd's "quarterback" demeanor. In recent
interviews, his natural verbal cadence is coming
back. The last time he sounded this comfortable
was before the Penn State game -- his best performance
of the season. I think he's ready to trust himself
and his teammates again. He's mentioned some late-season
mechanical flaws discovered during film review
that were leading to poor throws that have been
corrected. OSU will need to be able to throw and
run with some effectiveness to win this game,
so Todd's performance is critical.
The wildcard is what the staff plans on doing
with Antonio Henton -- the back-up QB who had
some legal troubles with a female officer undercover
as a lady-of-the-night earlier this year after
showing some promise in the first few games. He
would definitely provide a change of pace, if
needed. It would be risky to play him, but if
a spark is needed there is no reason to pull any
punches. In any case, he gives LSU something to
think about.
LSU comes into this game with the advantage on
special teams - which is strange to say about
a Tressel-coached team. They have dangerous return
men -- especially the fastest man in college football
(Trindon Holliday). OSU special teamers need to
get downfield on coverage and make a big hit --
look for #36 Brian Rolle and #3 Jamario O'Neal
to negate the advantage.
LSU's offense is actually fairly traditional and
looks a bit like the OSU offense. They'd prefer
to run the ball out of many different formations.
They will empty out the backfield, but they are
not really running a spread offense. This should
favor the OSU defense. The "non-traditional"
stuff can give the Bucks fits. Also, LSU has some
quick dudes (see: Trindon Holliday), but the Silver
Bullets play well in space. Open-field tackling
has been very sound for the Bucks.
The Buckeyes defensive backs are able to play
one-on-one with the return of Anderson Russell
and the emergence of Donald Washington (his playing
in this game was critical) and Chimidi Chekwa.
Playing one-on-one negates both the short pass
(the real issue with a zone) and long pass play.
It also makes plays take longer to develop allowing
crashing defensive ends to get to the QB. Gholston
will set the tempo of the game and disrupt both
the pass and the run.
The one dimension to the LSU attack that could
have some success against OSU's D is the run.
Jacob Hester is a big back running behind a big
offensive line (one of the LSU lineman was 15
pounds 14 ounces when he was born -- largest baby
in Louisiana history). You negate OSU's defensive
speed by running right at it. Also, LSU features
5 different running backs each with a slightly
different style. OSU typically is outstanding
at exploiting personnel match-ups, but it's hard
to exploit such a moving target. So, someone from
Ohio State's base defense will need to have his
best game of the year. Keep in mind, the time
between the Michigan game and the bowl game is
like a season unto itself. For young players (esp.
true freshmen), those 7 weeks increase their college
experience 50% and a breakthrough performance
in the bowl game becomes foreshadowing of things
to come. I think the breakout game-changer for
the Silver Bullets will be Cameron Heyward. If
both Heyward and Gholston can command two blockers,
that will free up the down linemen and allow Laurinaitis,
Freeman and Grant room to roam. Also, Heyward's
back-up (Robert Rose) most likely won't play due
to surgery after the Michigan game. So, Heyward
will have plenty of opportunity. For depth, the
Bucks could take the medical redshirt off Lawrence
Wilson who was hurt in the first game against
YSU this year (if he's ready).
This should be an outstanding game. One, we'll
watch through replays every Buckeye season for
the rest of our lives. Just like Cie Grant's coming
off the corner to sack Ken Dorsey on the final
play of the 2002 championship season and the hoisting
of the trophy.
I'm no longer uncomfortable, just ready for tonight.
Touchdowns: Beanie, Robo, Hartline
OSU 24 LSU 20
Go Bucks! Beat LSU! Vernon Gholston for
Heisman!
Matt Johnson (AKA - Large Father)
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